Elections 2004 - Understanding the Indian Voter

Elections 2004 are over and what a tumultuous election it has been! The Indian voter has revealed his mind and ensured that the ruling National Democratic Alliance led by, what some people would like to phrase as the ‘right-wing-Hindu-nationalist-party’, the BJP, sits in the Opposition benches. While I am ‘personally’ disappointed with the results, they have thrown up (at least in my mind!) some interesting issues about the large mass of people, its preferences, voting patterns, etc, that keep the wheels of the largest democracy in the world turning.

To my mind, understanding the demographic division within India forms a key to unravelling the mystery of the Indian voter. The demographic division of the populace is interesting and one can view this division using various lenses. At the linguistic level the country has been carved up into states based on language, so while Tamil Nadu is populated by Tamils, Bengal is the land of Bengalis, and so on. During the last 5 years the larger states that dominated the Indian polity have given way to smaller states for instance Chattisgarh, Uttaranchal, etc, and the trend will continue in the coming years. If we were to look through the ‘religious’ lens, the country is predominantly a Hindu country with a large Muslim population (the largest in the world among non Islamic countries) forming the second block. The Christians, Buddhists, Jains, Zoroastrians and others, make up the rest. While Hindus and Muslims are dispersed almost equally across the country, the other religions have strong pockets of influence in certain parts of the country; for instance, Christianity is the predominant religion in the North-Eastern part of India while Buddhism is present in the Hindi heartland of U.P. and Bihar. Viewed thru the ‘economic’ lens, India is a largely poor country with the rural and urban poor forming the mass of the population, next in line comes the great and fabled ‘middle class’ that can be further sub-divided into the ‘upper middle class’, middle middle-class (if there is anything like that!), and the lower middle-class. At the top of the monies pile sit the very rich and the stinking rich. Thus, one individual has several identities and each of these identities have their own pulls and pressures that dictate which way one votes.

Take my case for instance, I am an Indian, Hindu, Bengali, middle class person. Each one of these identities has their own pulls and has a say in my own voting preference. Thus as an ‘Indian’ my prime issues are:
a) Economic development of the country
b) Foreign Policy initiatives which would translate to peace in our immediate neighbourhood and an important voice on the world stage
c) As an Indian I am terribly egoistic; my country has been under western cultural, political and economic foreign domination from the 18th century to the middle of the 20th century and while I have not seen those pre-liberated days my fathers and grandfathers generation is a living proof of that age and time. I would be loath to see a foreign national lead the country, and in this particular case one who did not take up Indian citizenship for the first 15 odd years of her married life. ‘Bahu’ or no ‘Bahu’ concept overridden!

If I were to vote only wearing my ‘Indian’ hat then my vote would go to the BJP, not for the economic stuff since we are evolving but, singularly because peace gives momentum for the economy to grow instead of stationing our troops at the borders doing precious little then peeling nuts. And to at least see an Indian from among a population of a billion, lead the country.

Wearing my ‘Hindu’ hat or rather my ‘religion’ hat is, by far, the most interesting. Hinduism to me, and as it is, is a way of life, a way to live and conduct your life on earth. It has, for me, nothing to do with grandiose temples and the like. On the other hand history is proof to both:
a) the Hindu’s remarkable ability to assimilate within himself all the various religious that either found birth in this land or followed the procession of invaders who either pillaged the country or adopted this country as their own
b) the Muslims largely harsh on the Hindus during their rules baring really ‘true’ rulers such as Akbar who did not discriminate on religious grounds
Being only a Hindu does not end the task. I have to contend with my caste affiliations to further decide on my vote. Being a Bengali the task is made easy, since we do not, as a majority at least, pander to caste affiliations. On this front I wouldn’t have voted for the BJP, for the majestic state of inaction that they showed during the Gujarat riots, nay even the total subservience of the entire state and judicial machinery to subvert the rule of law and sanity.
If I wear my ‘Bengali’ hat, then no votes for the Left parties, which have effectively killed Bengal, and in the same breath no votes for either the BJP or the Congress or for that matter anyone. I abstain from voting!
While viewing from my economic status there would have been very little difference between the BJP and Congress’s ability to change my fortunes in the short to medium term and I cannot conjure an image for the long-term prospects. But again, I would vote for the BJP for the fact that 50 years of Nehruvian economics with grandiose non-functional 5 year plans, read socialism inspired plans, have done precious little for the general mass of people. Time to move on and vote.

To sum up, the BJP gets 2 positive votes, 1 negative vote and in one case I abstain from exercising my democratic right. Voila! That’s why I ended voting for the BJP.
If we take a Muslim’s point of view they (even if they were from similar backgrounds as mine) would not have voted for the BJP on the grounds of the Gujarat riots alone. Even if voting for the BJP had meant a better economic prospect for the country, the spectre of sectarian violence and the innate human nature to protect one’s community would have played a major role. Here again the BJP would have come up with a cropper and not to speak of the rabid ‘Praveen Togadias’ and morally and ideologically corrupt ‘V.H. Dalmias’ sapping whatever damage control exercises the BJP would have undertaken. Muslim’s, to my mind, irrespective from which economic strata they come from, would by and large, not have voted any differently.

The rural and urban poor do not have to contend with so many different facets while deciding their vote. The two aspects that they would have had to contend with were a) The caste that the candidate belonged to and b) the ‘economic’ changes that the prospective candidate or party is perceived to bring about in their lives. The track record of the BJP for the latter dictum was dismal. The party was identified with the middle class and the rich and was perceived to have made little or, as in most cases, no difference to their lives. The poor and rich divide was amplified by the media blitzkrieg that the BJP undertook.

While to middle class people like me the campaign signified the coming of age of Indian politics, where different forms of media are used to put forth the ‘glory’ of a party’s rule, to the poor it only made the case crystal clear that the ruling coalition was their bane and that the BJP was predominantly a party for the educated, rich and the elite. When the majority of the populace is poor then this surely is hara-kiri. All well to say this in hindsight but it’s true! The middle-class is more to blame for this than the rich and elite. How many of us know that over 3000 farmers committed suicide in Andhra Pradesh alone? What is then the use of someone like Babu, who apart from being an IT Czar and having visions of modernizing Andhra did little during his 2 terms in office to reach the benefits of development to the poor? In a country like India the fact that your foreign reserves are overflowing with green bucks have no impact on the lives of the poor, for whom the routine of existence is limited to finding the next meal to be put on the table. Disinvestments also have nothing to do with them. How many guys have heard or seen a ‘Maruti’ and here we are, pruning our feathers over the smashing success of the Maruti disinvestments. Mr. Suzuki to them is a non-entity; he simply does not exist in their worlds.

Thus if you (as a poor person) had a choice in the form of a non-BJP candidate from the same caste as you were, you went out and voted for him. Places like Bihar fox me. What have people like Laloo or Ram Vilas Paswan done for the state or its people? But still they manage to win the largest number of seats. Is it that the people vote only on caste considerations or are they in any way so intimidated that they choose to vote for no one else!

The rich and the elite, by and large, are done with the political system. They have little or no interest in voting or in any aspect of governance, apart from their immediate business needs. So if the stock market travels north at a good velocity, with the minimum of loss of ‘momentum’ due to any type of friction, all the better. ‘Change’ to add to the family kitty. For those who vote from among this haloed class and who do not form a part of the intelligentsia, the BJP is the next best thing to nirvana. The Anil Ambanis of this world are not really affected by who comes to power, not after the dismantling of the ‘license-permit’ raj. If this year the BJP got the largest share from their election war chest then the Congress is the top contender for the coming one. All irritants can be brought over, so why bother and dilute precious ‘corporate’ time!
A good percentage of the educated intelligentsia have almost a rabid and xenophobic loathing for the BJP. For them the BJP is akin to the Mussolini’s and Hitler’s of this world, out to annihilate the entire Muslim populace from the face of India. I must say the RSS with its short Khaki coloured shorts armed with long ‘lathis’ do send us back in time and in the process renders impotent any hopes for the BJP to claw its way out of this ‘image’ hole. Apart from this there are two more slogans that the intelligentsia love raking up and passionately debating about, ‘saffronization’ and ‘corruption’. People like Murli Manohar Joshi are epitomes of how to rock a perfectly sailing boat by raking up issues like the ‘IIM fees’ for what reason I still cannot fathom.
On the other hand, perfectly justified attempts at rewriting ‘Nehruvian’ coloured history books are dubbed as ‘saffronisation’ since there is an information vacuum on what was being attempted and the absence of a larger national debate. The interpretation of ‘history’ falls into the subjective realm, the significance and importance of ‘roles’ played out by the various actors during a certain period can be interpreted according to what an ‘individual’ historian thinks fit.

Why? Our own freedom struggle is littered with freedom fighters that have been either marginalized or simply do not find mention in our books that are so predominantly overshadowed by the ‘Gandhis’ and the ‘Nehrus’. What treatment does someone like Sardar Patel find? For that matter does Netaji share the same ‘mind-space’ as would a Gandhi, two sides of the same coin, each fighting for independence and each with his unique approach? If non-violence was a way towards deliverance then the ‘kshatriya dharma’ of fighting against an occupier was equally relevant. Would the English have left the country on the strength of non-violence alone? If a ‘Netaji’ chose to honour his ‘dharma’ then he was only following what Lord Krishna said in the Gita. How do you marry the two worlds? Is any historian competent enough to pass any kind of judgement and decide who gets greater coverage in the History books, or should his role be limited to be a ‘recorder’ of events, all events, and be bound within the same bounds as a court-recorder or a parliamentary proceedings recorder.
Secondly, the ever-dominant slogan of ‘corruption’ finds the BJP on the wrong side of the table. They forget that Mrs G was the ‘mother’ of corruption and was among the most prominent leaders to institutionalise this malaise. Corrupt they all are and to the same degree. Make hay while the sun shines is the motto. Reading the Asian Age article on the ‘Bofors Gun’ scam makes your hair stand on end! What happened to the unaccounted monies? Let sleeping dogs lie! And, if you wake them up and make a checklist of all the scandals that took place and got buried without a single politician being hauled over the coals, then the Congress would have a larger list, simply by the sheer fact that they have ruled the country for much longer than the BJP or any other party. Give BJP the list and they would also make good of catching up. In the end the BJP’s loss is the Congress’s gain! And Mr. Intelligentsia don’t, for heavens sake; don’t rend the air with cries of ‘corruption’.

So you know how they voted? Any surprises why the BJP fared poorly?
Another interesting facet revealed by these elections, though not for the first time, is the fact that ‘dictators’ have no place in our lives. If you choose to live by the sword then be prepared to die by it! Amma down south would have choked on her idlis on the 13th, much like her federal counterpart, ensconced safely on the other side of the Atlantic, choked on his pretzels. She drew up an Aussie Duck! ‘Babu’ too had the dictatorial streak and sooner rather than later he too would have had gunpowder on his face. So much for the ‘I-have-the-bigger-gun’ theory! Narendra Modi, get hold of your dhoti, lest you have to run out in your ‘langot’!

Parties, which are led by mavericks, who throw a tantrum at the drop of the hat are also very unceremoniously shown the door. Chest beater Mamta, was shown no ‘mamta’ by her electorate and has been almost wiped out from the face of West Bengal save for two miserly seats. So there, don’t put your mouth where there is a fire!
The irony of this election is manifold. While the BJP was done in by its own spin and the likes of Pramod Mahajan, suave, articulate and IT friendly have egg on their faces, an Italian finds herself, to her utter surprise and whoops of joy, the job of running a country! But the real danger lies ahead. There is no party that can take the centrist stage. While the Congress is leaned heavily to the left, what with the ‘red’ parties trying to tear down the disinvestments ministry and the Amar Singhs baying for poor Arun Shourie’s blood, the BJP now, more than ever, runs the risk of taking the extreme right-wing stage with the RSS and the VHP asserting themselves.

Lo and behold the ‘Govindacharyas’ of this world have risen from the ashes, dusted off their soiled clothes and are ready for the arc lights of the TV studios to glow off their bald brown pate. Sushma Swaraj has, by the way, gone a mite too far by stating that she plans to get herself tonsured!

The real victim is India. We have lost a statesman in Vajpayee, who would have been and was an ideal centrist. He demonstrated the ‘dharma’ of running coalitions, in a country where fractured verdicts have to be accepted as a way of life. He has ably proved that a country can be governed sensibly even when the government is composed of parties that have divergent views on many an issue. The ability to bring peace, not by rhetoric or self-belief (hindi-chini bhai-bhai), but by principled stand and patient dialogue can be proved in good measure by the quiet success that we have had with China. The fact that Chinese maps now show ‘Sikkim’ as a part of India is no mean achievement. With Pakistan the people-to-people contact initiative really caught on. Only Vajpayee could have made someone like Avul Pakir Jainulabdeen Abdul Kalam President of India.

If we are to have a centrist party, we from the middle-class and the intelligentsia have to salvage the BJP; they are the best bet that we have got. The rot has seeped in too far in the Congress and the strangle hold by the ‘family’ over the party can only increase. If we do nothing the BJP runs an even greater danger of succumbing to the RSS and the VHP pressure. You can then kiss your dreams goodbye of keeping out the Laloos, Paswans and Ammas from taking roost in the centre and sending this country into a time-warp.